What's up in Real Estate? 

The latest in National Real Estate News

Rates Back Below 7%

A combination of factors helped push average 30-year mortgage rates back below 7% this week. First, the jobs data (JOLTs, ADP) held few surprises. Second, Powell’s testimony to Congress was a non-event. Unfortunately, this positive momentum could all reverse today (3/8) if the February BLS jobs report shows more than 200K job additions. [Sources: BLS, ADP, Mortgage News Daily]

A Winter Slowdown

CoreLogic’s HPI index showed that national prices dropped 0.1% month-over-month in January 2024, about the same as in December 2023. Price growth has clearly decelerated. That said, on a year-over-year basis, national home prices were still up 5.8%, and home equity levels (for owners with mortgages) rose 8.6%. CoreLogic forecasts 2.6% price growth over the next 12 months.

Making the Job #’s work

Job growth has slowed dramatically. But big differences have emerged between the jobs numbers reported by ADP (private company, hard data) and the BLS (gov't agency, lots of imputed numbers). Why is this important? Because the Fed will be "in no rush" to start lowering short-term interest rates if the unemployment rate remains near multi-decade lows. [Sources: ADP, BLS]

Bottom Line: 

The good news is that average mortgage rates have moved back below 7%. But the market will be laser-focused on the BLS February jobs number out today (3/8). Anything over 200K job additions could spook the bond market and see mortgage rates climb again.

Would you like an up to date, local market update?  Reach out to me today for an overall view of what is happening in your neck of the woods!